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    Home»Opinion»Why Jollibee Is Quietly Becoming a Coffee and Beverage Company
    Opinion

    Why Jollibee Is Quietly Becoming a Coffee and Beverage Company

    FinancialAdviser.phMay 13, 20266 Mins Read
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    Most Filipinos still think of Jollibee Foods Corporation (PSE: JFC) primarily as a fast-food company built around burgers, fried chicken, and spaghetti. But the company may now be evolving into something very different.

    Over the past several years, JFC quietly assembled one of Asia’s largest coffee and beverage businesses through acquisitions and expansion across multiple international markets. The company now owns or operates brands such as The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, Highlands Coffee, Compose Coffee, and Milksha.

    What makes this especially interesting is the scale.

    By the end of 2025, JFC’s coffee and beverage-related store network had already reached more than 5,300 outlets globally, including approximately 2,972 Compose Coffee stores in Korea, 1,079 Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf stores, 985 Highlands Coffee stores, and 357 Milksha outlets. Based on disclosed store counts, coffee and beverage concepts now account for more than half of JFC’s global store network.

    This is a major shift for a company that many investors still mainly view as a Philippine fast-food business.

    JFC’s balance sheet increasingly reflects this transformation as well.

    Based on acquisition disclosures and related investments, JFC may already have roughly ₱50 billion to ₱60 billion directly tied to coffee and beverage businesses. Once associated goodwill, franchise rights, lease assets, and operating investments are considered, the broader economic exposure could realistically amount to ₱90 billion. Relative to JFC’s total asset base of roughly ₱330 billion, coffee and beverage-related assets may now represent nearly a quarter of the company’s balance sheet.

    This is no longer just a side business. It increasingly looks like one of the company’s main growth drivers.

    The Economics of Daily Consumption

    The reason this matters goes far beyond product mix.

    Coffee and beverage businesses often possess very different economics compared with traditional fast-food chains. Consumers may buy burgers and fried chicken occasionally, but coffee and milk tea purchases are often habitual and recurring. Beverage concepts typically benefit from higher customer frequency, daily consumption patterns, stronger franchise scalability, and, in many cases, better margins and lower kitchen complexity.

    This may help explain why JFC continues allocating substantial capital toward beverage-led concepts globally.

    Compose Coffee, in particular, appears highly significant strategically. JFC acquired the Korean coffee chain at an enterprise value multiple of roughly 8x EBITDA, a valuation that already implied relatively attractive operating economics. More importantly, Compose operates a largely franchised and capital-light model, which may allow the business to scale internationally with lower reinvestment requirements compared with traditional restaurant formats.

    This could eventually improve JFC’s overall return on invested capital over time. Based on current financials, JFC’s ROIC is estimated to be around 8% to 9%, while management itself is targeting roughly 20% by 2028.

    The bigger strategic shift may be even more important.

    JFC increasingly appears to be shifting from an “occasion-based eating” business toward a “habitual daily consumption” company. In many ways, this resembles the evolution seen in several global restaurant and café operators where beverages become the anchor for recurring customer traffic and ecosystem expansion.

    The Hidden Valuation Story

    This transformation may also help explain why JFC plans to separate and eventually list its international business overseas.

    The company disclosed that the move aims to provide clearer visibility into the international operations and potentially access a broader pool of investors more familiar with valuing international restaurant growth and franchise businesses.

    Inside the Philippine market, JFC is still largely viewed as a domestic fast-food company. But globally, coffee and beverage businesses often command very different valuation frameworks because investors place greater value on recurring consumption behavior, franchise scalability, and long-term customer frequency.

    The numbers become even more interesting when viewed this way. JFC’s international business generated roughly ₱121 billion in revenues in 2025, equivalent to around 43% of total consolidated sales. A significant portion of this international network is now tied directly to coffee and beverage concepts.

    Globally, coffee and beverage-focused restaurant companies often command premium revenue multiples because investors place greater value on recurring daily consumption, franchise scalability, and customer frequency.

    As of May 2026, Starbucks Corporation traded at roughly 3.18x sales, Dutch Bros Inc. at around 4.38x sales, and Luckin Coffee Inc.  at approximately 1.49x sales despite intense competition in China. Meanwhile, high-growth Mediterranean and beverage-oriented concept Cava Group, Inc traded near 8.99x sales.

    Using these companies as reference points, the median price-to-sales multiple among the group is roughly 3.8x.

    Viewed from that perspective, JFC’s international business could eventually be evaluated under a very different framework if investors begin viewing it more as a scalable coffee and beverage company rather than simply a Philippine fast-food operator.

    For example, applying a more conservative 2.5x price-to-sales multiple to JFC’s international business would imply a standalone valuation of roughly:

    ₱121B×2.5=₱303B

    Meanwhile, the Philippine business alone could still reasonably justify a valuation of around ₱150 billion. Assuming the domestic operations generate roughly ₱8 billion in normalized annual earnings, applying an 18x earnings multiple, which is consistent with established consumer franchise businesses, would imply a standalone valuation close to:

    ₱8B×18=₱144B

    or approximately ₱150 billion.

    Combining both businesses would imply a total equity value of roughly:

    ₱303B+₱150B=₱453B

    Even after applying a meaningful holding company and execution discount, the implied valuation could still approach roughly ₱360 billion, nearly double JFC’s current market capitalization of approximately ₱184 billion.

    Assuming JFC’s current share price is around ₱162 per share, this could theoretically imply a valuation closer to:

    ₱318 per share

    which would place the stock near its historical highs if the market eventually begins valuing the international business more like a global coffee and beverage company rather than simply a Philippine fast-food operator.

    Of course, the market will not automatically assign those multiples overnight. JFC still faces meaningful risks tied to leverage, acquisition integration, goodwill, and international execution. Some overseas businesses continue operating under varying margin profiles, while global consumer conditions remain uncertain.

    But the spin-off itself may reveal something important.

    The market may still be valuing Jollibee primarily as a Philippine fast-food company even as its financials increasingly suggest the company is evolving into a much larger global coffee and beverage business.

    And over time, that distinction could matter a lot for valuation.

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